Farmers’ perception of the effects of climate variability on rice production and adaptation strategies

Abstract

The main objective of the study was to assess the farmers’ perception of the effects of climate variability on rice production in Limoto wetlands in Kibuku district. The research was cross- sectional in nature where both quantitative and qualitative approaches to produce data on historical trends and challenges of climate variability, farmers’ perceptions of the impacts of climate variability on rice production and factors influencing adaptation strategies that would allow rice farmers to shape sustainability and resilience to their livelihoods. Both purposive sampling and Simple random sampling were employed to select respondents from both rice farmers and key informants in the two sub-counties of Buseta and Kituti within Kibuku district comprised a population of 900 active farmers and were only 268 were sampled during the study, 160 were from Buseta Sub-County, while 108 were from Kituti Sub-County. Data on monthly temperature and rainfall for the period 1995–2024 were obtained from the department of Meteorological services, under the Ministry of Water and Environment. This period matches a minimum of 30 years. Rice farmers’ perceived impacts of climate variability on rice production relied on cross-sectional data from 268 rice farmers interviewed using a combination of semi structured questionnaires. The medians within each boxplot indicated a slight temperature upward shift over time, particularly from the 1990s to the 2010s. Contrastingly, the annual rainfall does not show any monotonic trend, despite substantial inter-annual variability. Statistical tests revealed that inter-annual variability in rainfall, with extreme anomalies observed in 2000 and 2016 had SPI values below -2, signifying severe drought years. Conversely, 1996, 2007, and 2019 had SPI values above +1.5 significantly wetter conditions. These findings were consistent with findings from responses obtained from FGDs and KIIs. The results from the analysis of minimum temperature were consistent with those of maximum temperature, where the decadal increase in maximum temperature was significant between the 1990s and 2010s. The medians within each boxplot indicate a slight upward shift over time, particularly from the 1990s to the 2010s. However, the 2020s appear to show a stabilization or slight reduction in median maximum temperatures. Contrastingly, the annual rainfall does not show any monotonic trend, despite substantial inter-annual variability. The demographic and socio- characteristics revealed education, social, and technological involvement to enhance adaptation. The study concluded that significant climatic shifts have occurred in both rainfall and temperature patterns, including the frequency of dry spells and elevated mean temperatures. It was also concluded by the results there is evident decline in rice kilograms over the last three decades.