The potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on Arabica coffee production :

Abstract

The study was conducted in the Tingey county Kapchorwa district in Uganda aimed at assessing the effect of climate change and climate variability on Arabica coffee production. The objectives of the study were to assess the effect of climate change and climate variability on coffee production under the current and predicted climatic conditions of precipitation and temperature; to assess the adaptation techniques that farmers are applying and to assess the determinants of farmer's choice of adaption techniques. To achieve these objectives, the study assessed the historical and forecasted precipitation and temperature patterns under the three emission scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Questionnaires and key informant interviews were employed to gather information 011 farmer's adaptation techniques to the impacts of climate change and determinants of fanner's choice of adaptation techniques. Gridded datasets of observed and modelled rainfall and temperature data from Climate Research Unit eCRU) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORD EX) were used to assess the historical and forecasted patterns of rainfall and temperature. The research findings reveal that climate change will negatively affect coffee production. Temperature will increase by O.SoC for RCP 2.6, I.7oC for RCP 4.5 and 4.6°C for RCP 8.5. Such temperature changes will lead to coffee flower abortion, early ripening of coffee beans and areas suitable for the growth of coffee will reduce. Arabica coffee farmers could be forced to move up the mountains for favourable temperatures and this will in tum affect the quality of Arabica coffee and farmers could also be forced to switch to the production of other cash crops. Results also indicate that farmers are employing different techniques to adapt to climate change. 41.07 percent of the respondents use intercropping as an adaption technique followed by agroforestry at 34.40 percent. In conclusion, climate change and climate variability will negatively affection Arabica coffee production in Tingey County, Kapchorwa District.