Abstract:
The River Nile basin has experienced noticeable changes in climate patterns over the past decades, with shifts in temperature and precipitation. These changes have been attributed to various factors, including anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, land-use changes, and natural climate variability. The problem that has been addressed in this study is that of discerning the effect and impact of climate change from that attributed to use of destructive modern fishing gear on the status and trends of fishing and fisheries productivity on selected landing sites along river Nile in Kamuli District. The study only focused on historical data where data on climate of River Nile basin, Kamuli District was used for all the five decades on annual and seasonal temperature averages and total precipitation. : Similarly the data historical data on annual fish production at Namasagali landing sites was obtained for the five decades including the data on the fish species landed was analyzed using SPSS ( computer software programme), descriptive and relational statistics. The data indicated a clear upward trend in average global temperatures over the five decades. In the 1980s, the average temperature was 22.5°C, and this figure has steadily increased each subsequent decade. In the 1980s, the average precipitation was 1200 mm, and it gradually declined each decade, reaching 1000 mm by the 2020s. On the other hand the analysis reflects a clear downward trend in average annual production over the five decades. In the 1980s, the average annual production was at 1500 metric tons (MT), but this figure has steadily decreased over the decades. The interest of the research is to establish if there is any relationship between the observed climate and the fish production trends in the Namasagali landing sites. Analysis of fish species composition revealed a shift from traditionally dominant species like tilapiines to faster-growing hardy and ecologically more versatile species such as African catfish (Gariepinus Clarias). The correlation matrix revealed a strong negative correlation indicating that as mean temperature increases, mean precipitation tends to decrease. Mean Temperature is also negatively correlated with Fish Production suggesting that higher temperatures are associated with lower fish production. Conversely, Mean Precipitation has a strong positive correlation with Fish Production, implying that increased precipitation is associated with higher fish production.
Key conclusion of the study is that there is a probable and strong signal of climate change effects on the fishing and fisheries of Namasagali landing sites despite the strong influence from the increased adoption and use of more efficient and ecologically destructive gears.
