An assessment of historical and future rainfall and temperature patterns over Uganda using a regional climate model.

Abstract

Knowledge about future: climate provides valuable insights into how the challenges posed by climate change and variability can be addressed. This study assessed the historical and future rainfall and temperature under CORDEX-African line over Uganda using Climate Limited-area Modelling Community (CLMcom-CCLM4) model data when driven by three Global. Climate Models (CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM, ICHEC-EC-EARTH and -MPI-M-MPILESM) for the period 1976-2005 (Historical), 2021-2050 (Near future) and 2070-2100 (Far future). Correlational analysis, spatial analysis and error index evaluation were used in the study. Results showed that the model performed fairly well in reproducing rainfall and temperature; and Uganda may reach the expected global temperature increase of up to 5.8 0C. The findings also indicate that there are problems of using the model in performance over Uganda and future studies should be done to improve on the model performance.