Abstract:
Overall, unfavourable temperatures are the major climatic limitations for coffee
production. These limitations are expected to become increasingly important in several
coffee growing regions due to the recognized changes in global climate where
unfavourable temperatures constitute major constraints to coffee yield. The present study
focuses on the impact of temperature variations on Robusta coffee production in Uganda
taking Mityana district as the case in study in particular. Specifically, this study aimed at
determining how the variations in temperature affect coffee yields and what strategies
can be taken to manage and adapt to these conditions.
The data used was temperature and coffee yield data. Monthly historical temperature
data for the period 1950-2017 and monthly projected temperature data for the period
2018-2050 basing on the climatic scenarios of the Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 was obtained at a resolution of 0.05"0.05 as a CMIP5 data
set using the MPI-ESM Model from the climate data library (ICPAC). The coffee yield
data was acquired from the Coffee Research Centre in Kituza (NaCoRI). All this data
was secondary data particularly for Mityana district only.
Temperature - Time series analysis was done to determine the variation in the trend of
temperature with time and this was achieved using the graphical interpretations and the
Mann Kendall statistical analysis test. Then the second objective of establishing the
implication of the temperature trend on the Robusta coffee plant was achieved using
suitability modeling.
The result showed that there is a significant increasing trend in surface temperatures with
time, both historically and as expected under the climatic scenarios. However, it was
established that this increase will not negatively affect the Robusta coffee growth and
development but it shall be used as an advantage to the farmers to plan on how to
improve on the coffee yields with the prevailing temperature conditions. Any decline in
the yield productivity was noted to have been either as a result of low temperatures or
better explained by other factors like pests and diseases, management factors, etc.
The study concluded that the temperatures have been and are still increasing but farmers
are aware of this and have embarked on management and adaptation strategies to
sustainably grow the Robusta coffee crop. However, there is need to look at technologies
that maintain and improve on yield productivity with the existing climatic conditions.
