The potential impact of temperature variations on coffee production in Mityana district, Uganda.

Abstract

Overall, unfavourable temperatures are the major climatic limitations for coffee production. These limitations are expected to become increasingly important in several coffee growing regions due to the recognized changes in global climate where unfavourable temperatures constitute major constraints to coffee yield. The present study focuses on the impact of temperature variations on Robusta coffee production in Uganda taking Mityana district as the case in study in particular. Specifically, this study aimed at determining how the variations in temperature affect coffee yields and what strategies can be taken to manage and adapt to these conditions. The data used was temperature and coffee yield data. Monthly historical temperature data for the period 1950-2017 and monthly projected temperature data for the period 2018-2050 basing on the climatic scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 was obtained at a resolution of 0.05"0.05 as a CMIP5 data set using the MPI-ESM Model from the climate data library (ICPAC). The coffee yield data was acquired from the Coffee Research Centre in Kituza (NaCoRI). All this data was secondary data particularly for Mityana district only. Temperature - Time series analysis was done to determine the variation in the trend of temperature with time and this was achieved using the graphical interpretations and the Mann Kendall statistical analysis test. Then the second objective of establishing the implication of the temperature trend on the Robusta coffee plant was achieved using suitability modeling. The result showed that there is a significant increasing trend in surface temperatures with time, both historically and as expected under the climatic scenarios. However, it was established that this increase will not negatively affect the Robusta coffee growth and development but it shall be used as an advantage to the farmers to plan on how to improve on the coffee yields with the prevailing temperature conditions. Any decline in the yield productivity was noted to have been either as a result of low temperatures or better explained by other factors like pests and diseases, management factors, etc. The study concluded that the temperatures have been and are still increasing but farmers are aware of this and have embarked on management and adaptation strategies to sustainably grow the Robusta coffee crop. However, there is need to look at technologies that maintain and improve on yield productivity with the existing climatic conditions.