Analysis of grid reliability impact on the energy production and economic performance of the Busitema solar PV plant

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of grid reliability on the energy production and economic performance of the 4 MW Busitema Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Plant in Uganda. Despite the increasing deployment of Grid-tied solar PV systems, frequent grid outages and voltage fluctuations in Uganda’s power infrastructure pose significant challenges to their performance. The research was conducted over a four-month period from November 2024 to March 2025, during which half-hourly solar generation data and grid conditions were analyzed. Results revealed a total of 360,556 kWh of unutilized solar energy due to 2,520 minutes (42 hours) of grid outages, translating into financial losses of approximately UGX 14.6 million (USD 3,980.49). To mitigate these losses, three technical solutions were evaluated: Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS), and hybrid inverter systems capable of islanding mode operation. Technical simulations using MATLAB and cost-benefit analyses showed that while PHS had a negative Net Present Value due to high capital investment, both BESS and hybrid inverter systems presented financially viable options, with the hybrid inverter achieving the shortest payback period. The study concludes that addressing grid reliability through smart storage and control technologies is essential for maximizing the potential of solar PV plants and achieving energy sustainability goals in Uganda. Recommendations include adopting BESS as the primary mitigation strategy and developing predictive outage management tools to enhance system resilience.