Abstract:
Uganda's rapid urbanization at 5.2% annually includes Jinja's quick growth, with 3% population
increase driven by various factors. Despite concerns about encroachment, Jinja's green
infrastructure remains vital for climate mitigation because it absorbs CO2, though growth hampers
sequestration. This study analyzed how urban expansion affects Jinja’s carbon sequestration to
support SDGs 11 and 13 using a spatial–temporal quantitative research design, GIS analysis of
2001, 2011, and 2021 remotely sensed satellite data, with the CASA model and indices like the
Urban Expansion Index and urban land index.
This study analyzes the relationship between urban expansion and carbon changes from 2001 to
2021 using Landsat data. The study calculated NPP, carbon stocks, sequestration, and calculated
urban expansion metrics like ULI and UEI. Results show rapid development: Jinja’s buil t-up area
nearly doubled, with ULI rising from 6.54% in 2001 to 9.85% in 2021, and UEI from 0.142%
(2001–2011) to 0.188% (2011–2021). Jinja experienced significant outward growth from 2001 to
2011, driven by unregulated urban sprawl into high-carbon green spaces, resulting in a substantial
loss of carbon stocks, consistent with the UNCCD PRAIS4 Uganda report. Northern Division
(which includes Mafubira, Bugembe, and Budondo) has become the main growth area, whereas
the Southern Division (the old municipality) experienced slower spatial expansion. spatial
regression analysis reveals, from 2001 to 2011, the urban expansion coefficient was statistically
significant and negative (–23,760; p = 0.001)
Quantifying both urban expansion and carbon sequestration from past trends enhances
understanding of climate dynamics and supports sustainable urban planning for future urban
growth, emphasizing the development of green cities.
